One of the most exciting times in college basketball is March Madness. But as the tournament progresses, the underdogs often step up to pull off upset wins. Identifying those “March Madness big upsets” requires a sharp understanding of multiple outcome factors. Whether you’re an experienced bettor or a fan looking to get an edge, here are the key factors to consider in handicapping potential upsets.
All-time Underdog Cinderella Stories
Given how unpredictable March Madness big upsets can be, one of the most potent predictors to use is the historical performance of teams against marquee opponents. The tournament has made household names of mid-majors: Loyola-Chicago was the Cinderella of the 2018 tournament. A +16 underdog, Loyola-Chicago scared the pants off No. 5 Florida early this season. Then, as the No. 11 seed, they beat No. 6 seed Miami, No. 3 seed Tennessee, and others on their way to the Final Four. Their run began with an upset performance in December against Florida, emphasizing how this time of year is about paying attention to the underdog teams that look dangerous against top squads.
Important Note: A team that excels in early-season competitions particularly against higher-level opponents opens the door to major upsets in March. These are the teams to watch as they enter the tournament.
What is the Difference Between Neutral (or Home) Courts?
March Madness is played at neutral court sites, but some teams could benefit from a pseudo-home court advantage. Teams playing in nearby cities or states can draw significant numbers of fans, which could assist them in close matchups. In 2008, a No. 10 seed, Davidson played its first two games in North Carolina and scored upsets over Gonzaga and Georgetown. That closeness to home boosted their confidence, which helped with their surprising run.
Tip for Handicappers: Consider the location of games and how teams have fared in similar settings. Teams that are used to playing on the road or in neutral environments may have an advantage.
Analyzing Style of Play
Another essential part of finding potential upsets is knowing how a team plays. Some teams thrive on a high-tempo, run-and-gun style, while others operate more methodically. Some teams use full-court presses on defense, others a man-to-man or zone defense. These differences can profoundly affect how the teams play each other, particularly in tournament play.
Take, for example, a three-point dependent team, which could be more volatile. While they could get hot and bury a few successful long-range attempts in a row, they could fall flat if those shots aren’t dropping. Conversely, a team that excels defensively can flourish in high-pressure moments and frustrate an offense that depends upon pace.
Sikhar Patil, CMC’s director of professional services, Key Insight: “It relies on instinct it helps you predict March Madness pressure under March Madness pressure. Teams fluid enough to change the way they play to accommodate a variety of opponents especially on the defensive end are consistently the teams to look for upsets.
Evaluating Team Performance in High-Stakes Environments
March Madness is rife with high-pressure moments, and how a team handles similar situations leading up to the tournament can be telling. For instance, teams that have played top-level non-conference opponents or have excelled in close wins during the regular season are likely poised to handle the pressure of March Madness.
LSU was the first No. 11 seed to make it to the Final Four in 1986. The Tigers faced a home-court advantage for the first two rounds and registered stunning upsets, knocking out their region’s No. 1, 2, and 3 seeds. Their poise in pressure situations willed them to their historic run.
Tip for Handicappers: Gauge a team’s capacity to perform under pressure. If a team has endured adversity but come back charging, this might be the day they spring a surprise upset.
Closing Notes: Recognizing Massive Upsreally take advantage of March Madness’s significant upsets, you have to consider these things together: historical underdog success, venue advantages, playing style, and team performance under pressure. By studying these factors closely, you can forecast which underdog teams will likely score sensational upsets.
All in all, March Madness is entirely unpredictable, and that’s what makes it so damn thrilling. Use those tools to strategically pay attention to the subtleties that will play a role in how teams will affect your tournament success, and you’re in a good position to identify the next big upset.